Trends in Duration of Pension Receipt: Differences According to Pension Amount and Impact on Prevalence (ERDA)
Content and Objectives
As a result of the retirement of the baby boomers born in the 1950s and 1960s, demographic ageing will primarily place a burden on the statutory pension insurance system in the coming years. In addition to the development of pension amounts and the number of pensioners, trends in duration of pension receipt is of particular importance. The project "Trends in duration of pension receipt: Differences according to pension amount and impact on prevalence (ERDA)", funded by the Research Network on Old-Age Provision (FNA) for three years (2025 to 2028), aims to close research gaps in this area. Among other things, it addresses the question of how the duration of pension receipt has developed according to pension amount in the period from 2005 to 2022, which individual socio-demographic characteristics are associated with the duration of pension receipt according to pension amount and with changes in these differences, and which realistic scenarios for the development of the structure of the pensioners according to pension amount can be identified up to the year 2040. The project is led by the research area "Ageing, Mortality and Population Dynamics", in particular the research group "Individual and Societal Ageing". The research group "Mortality" is cooperating on selected work packages within the ERDA project. In addition to gaining insights for basic scientific research, ERDA also makes an important contribution to advising policymakers and administrators and informing the public.
Data and Methods
The ERDA project uses administrative microdata from the German Pension Insurance (including statistics on active insured persons (AKVS) and Rentenbestand/-wegfall) as well as linked survey data, e.g. from the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP-RV) or the Surveys of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE-RV). The project uses life table-based approaches and decomposition analyses as well as other demographic approaches such as the outsurvival approach, Lexis-Surfaces and microsimulation methods. The latter are used to generate scenario-based projections of pension receipt durations until at least 2040. To analyse the survey data linked to the administrative data of the German Pension Insurance, multivariate analysis methods for longitudinal data, such as random or fixed-effects models and linear structural equation modelling approaches, are used.
Duration
07/2025-09/2028
Team
Partners
- Dr. Mara Barschkett, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Germany